MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37a15e857a89b5d3050a94f15c77f199ed51bd6fef08501a96b5ac1e77162c35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 9,174$2,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,194.68 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 8,887$5,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,965.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 6,818$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,568.18 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 6,000$4,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,079.81 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 3,317$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,234.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 70c | 2,521$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 2,005$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.53 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 29c | 1,834$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.09 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 1,580$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.38 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 19c | 1,065$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.21 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…21fbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 946.29$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 785.58$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.54 | 148 | 64.2%95 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 600$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 460$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 451.4$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.44 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 420.45$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 29c | 418.06$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.89 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 407.04$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.87 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Boston Red Sox | 68c | 403$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.04 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 320$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.6 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 261.09$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.44 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…07b6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 162.07$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.07 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Boston Red Sox | 68c | 159.71$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 150$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 141.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.94 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Boston Red Sox | 24c | 140.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Boston Red Sox | 24c | 140.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 139.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 77c | 132.91$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 115.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 91.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 90.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 84.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Boston Red Sox | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 78.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 74.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 69.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 57.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34bb…f3e4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 26c | 56.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 48.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 48.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdca…5382backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 46.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 46.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 41.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…9b09backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 34.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 32.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 31.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Boston Red Sox | 73c | 30.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Boston Red Sox | 71c | 25.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Boston Red Sox | 73c | 20.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Boston Red Sox | 69c | 19.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Boston Red Sox | 77c | 15.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Boston Red Sox | 76c | 15.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.