TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$368,845
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$383,349

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $368,845 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb91a…3987backed Under47c214,244$99,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114,244.8613561.5%83 W · 52 L+15.2wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.5%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Over54c100,000$53,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,944.6855053.1%292 W · 258 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Over53c42,453$22,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,469.3523948.5%116 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Over53c40,000$21,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,20086548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over53c34,740$18,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,412.1132152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Over53c15,737$8,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,340.6192054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under46c13,829$6,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,467.421,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over54c12,000$6,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,48059549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over53c11,517$6,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,104.11,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under46c10,475$4,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,638.774,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over51c8,621$4,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,409.924,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x459e…7dd1backed Over53c7,382$3,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9467047.1%33 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5762…90eebacked Under48c7,292$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,791.676552.3%34 W · 31 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+25.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over52c6,210$3,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,229.113,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over54c6,000$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,239.9921748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6501,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f86…ef4ebacked Under48c4,867$2,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.325356.6%30 W · 23 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+41.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over55c4,545$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Under48c4,400$2,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,28866050.2%331 W · 329 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over52c3,233$1,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,673.685,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over51c3,197$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.3211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Under47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,59019053.7%102 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xced2…d98abacked Under48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5603145.2%14 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0075…5f10backed Under48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5604266.7%28 W · 14 L+6.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+31.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under47c2,523$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.675049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce7c…6007backed Under48c2,134$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.723070%21 W · 9 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+35.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x93a0…6623backed Under47c2,133$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.6739846.5%185 W · 213 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43f3…293cbacked Under47c2,031$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.819550.8%99 W · 96 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over54c1,855$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.781,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over53c1,849$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.666,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cec…d241backed Under46c1,739$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.138256.1%46 W · 36 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42c5…034dbacked Under47c1,677$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.921060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+50.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under46c1,639$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.774,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4a0…3accbacked Under48c1,613$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.625954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over53c1,343$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.741,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over53c1,300$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.9995850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Over53c1,260$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.9289053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Under46c1,189$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.8628154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Over55c1,091$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60017546.9%82 W · 93 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Under65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35070744.7%316 W · 391 L-22.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5453…65cebacked Over54c925.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011848.3%57 W · 61 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Under45c865.44$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.9949158.9%289 W · 202 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under69c829$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.934,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Under48c740$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.825249.2%124 W · 128 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7381…d95dbacked Under42c714.29$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.291553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadda…9e4fbacked Under73c699.59$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.942236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Under48c650$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3389448.9%46 W · 48 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+17.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed Under48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32516251.9%84 W · 78 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Under48c624.3$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.5253644.6%239 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Over53c567.24$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.6413441%55 W · 79 L-12.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c57…40febacked Over52c564.53$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.3421550.2%108 W · 107 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87f8…7de3backed Under48c520$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27338142%160 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4dd…23ffbacked Under47c500$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.639440.9%161 W · 233 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3c7…d601backed Over54c462.96$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010750.5%54 W · 53 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13ec…6452backed Under48c448.82$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.025064%32 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa95a…6b78backed Under46c440$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.66552.3%34 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Under47c430.03$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.921,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3afb…0004backed Under48c419.4$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.810650%53 W · 53 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb3a5…cd84backed Under48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6710046%46 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa99f…164bbacked Under48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6710744.9%48 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f6…0981backed Under47c411.77$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.3915857.6%91 W · 67 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3599…5338backed Under48c362.5$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.512848.4%62 W · 66 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb42d…bd2dbacked Over54c345.72$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.69540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee72…1996backed Under47c338$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.14633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf768…7831backed Under48c330.67$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.594259.5%25 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under75c321$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.251,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over41c318.4$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.393,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c91…b4d2backed Under47c307.19$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.8112752.8%67 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under46c296$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.698,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Over53c283.02$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15019842.9%85 W · 113 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a22…2929backed Under48c281.25$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.252161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Under46c276.57$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.3530048%144 W · 156 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf5…829cbacked Under48c268.19$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.833764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+36.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over33c266.82$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab6a…a10bbacked Under48c261.11$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.991275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+49.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb1c6…2d29backed Under48c252.21$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.216459.4%38 W · 26 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over48c236$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.235,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd27c…d9b8backed Under48c222.23$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.563860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under45c217.31$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.999,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cbf…c53cbacked Under48c214.58$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.584450%22 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x990e…cecfbacked Under47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.772661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b9d…77debacked Under47c210.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.554250%21 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf3f…1365backed Under48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3315159.6%90 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2208…53eebacked Under48c208.33$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.335554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18de…0b64backed Under48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3320357.1%116 W · 87 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b1…e904backed Over52c199.99$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9969351.9%360 W · 333 L+26.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Over53c199.98$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.321,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Over53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Over53c188.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10094549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Over55c187.24$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5351555.7%287 W · 228 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Over55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10058649.5%290 W · 296 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Over55c179.34$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.240554.8%222 W · 183 L+17.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Over58c170.28$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7679255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92cc…1bb5backed Under71c168.25$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.251546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6474…bd11backed Under47c158.57$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.524259.5%25 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf5f…30edbacked Under47c147.83$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.832650%13 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over45c139.8$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.916,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over55c131.27$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.921,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc78d…0bbdbacked Under46c130.42$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.432941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x815b…a1c7backed Over20c122.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256240.3%25 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.