Mls · resolved market
Atlanta United FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1358079c3fcf3a0e18becf671744ef792ae89db83976b047a36aca696f9ea1db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 57c | 5,715$3,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,478.61 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 3,034$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.08 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 1,574$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.6 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 309$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.6 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 39c | 306.83$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.84 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 280.11$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.3 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 44c | 254.04$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 38c | 225.52$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 44c | 186$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 54c | 186$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 43c | 167.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 62c | 159.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 68c | 138.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 55c | 136.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 46c | 133$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 60c | 110.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 43c | 104.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 28c | 67.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 73c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 21c | 61.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 58c | 58.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 37c | 53.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 45c | 49.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 56c | 44.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 77c | 41.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 45c | 30.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 71c | 27.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 64c | 23.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 67c | 23.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 74c | 23.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 74c | 21.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 56c | 21.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 75c | 15.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta United FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5this page
- Atlanta United FC vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Atlanta United FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atlanta United FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5Over won
- Atlanta United FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.