Mls · resolved market
Atlanta United FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x162055505d670bf36a4afe8a4773cb710c28dede70d568ddcad799eb469ef258
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 52c | 9,620$5,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,002.4 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 53c | 6,781$3,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,578.06 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Under | 47c | 6,522$3,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,480.38 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 18c | 4,539$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.82 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 50c | 3,937$1,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,951.63 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 48c | 2,433$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.61 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 29c | 2,300$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.95 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 72c | 1,680$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.67 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 54c | 1,101$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.38 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under | 46c | 1,016$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 671.58$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.33 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 54c | 634.75$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.16 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 49c | 583$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.64 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 71c | 539.19$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.13 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 47c | 517.04$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.71 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…3bcebacked Over | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…0c5abacked Over | 54c | 399.96$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.98 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.37per pick | 52cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…23e4backed Under | 40c | 318.88$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.43 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 75c | 305$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 51c | 296.33$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.36 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 50c | 287.94$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.31 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 17c | 264.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 47c | 132.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 17c | 96.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 47c | 95.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 45c | 85.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 19c | 67.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 38c | 63.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 52c | 38.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 55c | 37.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 62c | 34.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…2096backed Over | 72c | 26.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 42c | 25.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 90 | 70%63 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta United FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5this page
- Atlanta United FC vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Atlanta United FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atlanta United FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlanta United FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.