World Politics · resolved market
Will PC win the most in the 2024 New Brunswick general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1365234d58e2cdfe0204d15431db0bd6d53d8a3093f154b762544a10db49179d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 39c | 7,541$2,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,969.33 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 6,316$3,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,513.13 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +162.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 40c | 448.89$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.56 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…e314backed Yes | 45c | 436$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9239…a86fbacked Yes | 29c | 358$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 61c | 277$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.6 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…e636backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 41c | 242.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked No | 64c | 240$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed No | 73c | 225.88$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceef…ec6dbacked Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…6602backed No | 63c | 131.75$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Yes | 24c | 118.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…62e0backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…54d9backed Yes | 46c | 95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da1…dba6backed No | 54c | 95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…5c9fbacked No | 55c | 81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…a2cdbacked No | 62c | 73.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked No | 64c | 61.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad11…a223backed No | 64c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…0303backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…7f4fbacked Yes | 30c | 46.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f56…ccd7backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…6ea2backed Yes | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PC win the most in the 2024 New Brunswick general election?this page
- Will the Liberal party win the most seats in the 2024 New Brunswick general election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.