World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal party win the most seats in the 2024 New Brunswick general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee500bac6f5204bf6751454150ddfbb222b6157b64821daffda03e465249ce99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $202,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $202,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7067…d145backed No | 44c | 3,243$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a9…1dbabacked Yes | 74c | 2,700$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 55c | 1,952$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.62 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…5bd0backed No | 42c | 1,896$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x601b…a13bbacked Yes | 58c | 1,896$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…ac8ebacked Yes | 54c | 1,688$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9740…49ebbacked Yes | 58c | 1,555$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2972…24e2backed No | 26c | 1,356$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d2…0eecbacked Yes | 57c | 1,344$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…b557backed No | 43c | 1,344$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f9…812abacked No | 26c | 1,344$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…d44fbacked No | 28c | 1,100$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…5c9fbacked Yes | 59c | 1,094$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.54 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5263…bad3backed No | 38c | 835.09$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…b954backed Yes | 55c | 800$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…10adbacked Yes | 72c | 800$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818a…b279backed No | 45c | 800$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 61c | 740$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 55c | 731.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.17 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…9facbacked Yes | 54c | 696$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6457…b493backed No | 46c | 696$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4e…8d99backed No | 46c | 690$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…937abacked Yes | 54c | 690$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 62c | 511.26$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9616…08e9backed No | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e1…9c9dbacked Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…54b9backed No | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2216…9564backed Yes | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…91acbacked Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…6555backed Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…239fbacked No | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb31…98b5backed No | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…e9e7backed Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304c…cd00backed Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…f9edbacked No | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb836…ced2backed Yes | 54c | 484$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…bbccbacked No | 46c | 484$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36eb…719fbacked No | 46c | 474$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…054ebacked Yes | 54c | 474$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…f461backed No | 28c | 350$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…65b4backed No | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994f…853abacked Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…97bfbacked No | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x760a…4aa1backed No | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa9…3399backed Yes | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4660…eaedbacked Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d6…8ceebacked Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 54c | 226.22$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.05 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…7b9ebacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x928d…4826backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8c…ee49backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10c6…174dbacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 53c | 198.36$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.23 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed No | 33c | 166.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1efa…6a86backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc303…20e9backed No | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c3…d750backed No | 46c | 144$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…d22cbacked Yes | 54c | 144$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…74e8backed No | 44c | 139$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768b…0805backed Yes | 56c | 139$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…e636backed Yes | 69c | 113.33$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed No | 36c | 95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked Yes | 58c | 89.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad11…a223backed Yes | 64c | 66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 58c | 65.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…7f4fbacked No | 42c | 38.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…6ea2backed Yes | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…09b7backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 34.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…4e18backed Yes | 71c | 28.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…9d81backed Yes | 60c | 26.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 67c | 25.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff47…bd89backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal party win the most seats in the 2024 New Brunswick general election?this page
- Will PC win the most in the 2024 New Brunswick general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.