Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x138c0c8d0a47ed97b7b945edc3acc8f28d22e4533222ac6c629a578f6a87fcc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde85…7ffcbacked Yes | 3c | 2,999$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 70c | 1,115$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.65 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 46c | 292$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 27c | 279.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 24c | 170$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 76c | 163.74$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 27c | 162.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 148.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 42c | 129.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 47c | 105.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 79c | 101$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 21c | 86.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 69.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 24c | 61.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 17c | 59.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 42c | 45.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 59c | 42.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0091…3282backed No | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed No | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…606bbacked Yes | 54c | 34.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…f19ebacked Yes | 53c | 24.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed No | 62c | 22.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 10?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 10?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.