Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Carabelli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13ba8a412d5da68cd404c8792abb0bcd081680e8682ceb80243c166414178f4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jodarof Jodar, Carabelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Carabelli | 53c | 739.7$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.62 | 208 | 44.2%92 W · 116 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Jodar | 55c | 735.17$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.81 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Carabelli | 44c | 673.69$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.18 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Carabelli | 23c | 671.56$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.57 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Jodar | 77c | 493.03$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.58 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Carabelli | 59c | 492.99$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.69 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Jodar | 54c | 369.64$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.76 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Carabelli | 31c | 240.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…fe43backed Jodar | 76c | 229.8$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f75…df7fbacked Jodar | 76c | 227.13$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Jodar | 49c | 210.94$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.87 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Jodar | 50c | 201.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.14 | 348 | 47.1%164 W · 184 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jodar | 40c | 157.77$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.55 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Jodar | 53c | 146.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Jodar | 46c | 106.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Jodar | 79c | 105.31$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Jodar | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Jodar | 46c | 99.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…9ab5backed Carabelli | 63c | 77.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 212 | 56.1%119 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Jodar | 45c | 77.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Carabelli | 25c | 66.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…a1d0backed Carabelli | 57c | 64.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8724…c059backed Jodar | 61c | 60.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Jodar | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f10…0cb9backed Jodar | 71c | 56.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Carabelli | 24c | 45.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Carabelli | 30c | 40.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Jodar | 76c | 34.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 149 | 58.4%87 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5381backed Carabelli | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Jodar | 76c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Carabelli | 50c | 21.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1d…7132backed Jodar | 76c | 15.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46ea…d849backed Jodar | 77c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 163 | 70.6%115 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Carabellithis page
- Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliRafael Jodar won
- Jodar vs. Carabelli: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Jodar vs. Carabelli: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Rafael Jodar vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Carabelli (+1.5)Jodar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.