Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Carabelli (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa731d5d8fcf73c06a91a11199d4b65c4ddfca9e90c6f767eefe69735574bd079
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jodarof Jodar, Carabelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Carabelli | 33c | 2,735$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.94 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Jodar | 64c | 1,979$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.71 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Carabelli | 37c | 1,967$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.29 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Carabelli | 39c | 1,697$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.19 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Jodar | 55c | 1,095$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Carabelli | 29c | 990.46$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.22 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…e9d3backed Jodar | 62c | 782.23$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.49 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Carabelli | 67c | 508.21$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.21 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…86a4backed Jodar | 55c | 420$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Jodar | 61c | 400.25$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.1 | 327 | 63.9%209 W · 118 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffa9…eff1backed Jodar | 62c | 376.69$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.14 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Jodar | 63c | 309.96$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.39 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Carabelli | 36c | 297$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Carabelli | 42c | 250.06$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.22 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Carabelli | 43c | 219.64$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 323 | 33.4%108 W · 215 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…646fbacked Jodar | 54c | 205.64$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Jodar | 44c | 204.02$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.35 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…d209backed Carabelli | 39c | 199.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Carabelli | 53c | 192.29$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.42 | 625 | 34.4%215 W · 410 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…bd20backed Jodar | 61c | 160.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Jodar | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 184 | 54.3%100 W · 84 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Jodar | 63c | 156.09$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 509 | 52.1%265 W · 244 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…fcabbacked Carabelli | 31c | 124.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Carabelli | 42c | 98.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Jodar | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Carabelli | 38c | 89.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 203 | 31%63 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Carabelli | 36c | 82.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 184 | 47.3%87 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Carabelli | 40c | 76.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed Carabelli | 71c | 70.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…1d2cbacked Jodar | 62c | 63.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Jodar | 69c | 55.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Jodar | 39c | 51.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Carabelli | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Jodar | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Jodar | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 265 | 48.7%129 W · 136 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Jodar | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 416 | 44.5%185 W · 231 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Jodar | 71c | 48.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…bfddbacked Jodar | 55c | 47.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…4968backed Jodar | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked Jodar | 63c | 39.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Carabelli | 40c | 36.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 361 | 35.7%129 W · 232 L | -35.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…e926backed Jodar | 55c | 32.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Carabelli | 33c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 423 | 59.1%250 W · 173 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Carabelli | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Carabelli | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef3…52aebacked Jodar | 70c | 24.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…6182backed Jodar | 61c | 23.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Jodar | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9a…17edbacked Jodar | 80c | 13.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Carabelli (+1.5)this page
- Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliRafael Jodar won
- Jodar vs. Carabelli: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Jodar vs. Carabelli: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Rafael Jodar vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs CarabelliJodar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.