Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on January 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13c067dd863b0a59ed2b7a42f89413e2e92042a6a31e3b2a478b4ea0176e498b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 41c | 209.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 37c | 143.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff8…434fbacked No | 66c | 142.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 138.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 119.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 106.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 77c | 103.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…3595backed No | 61c | 99.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…1d3cbacked Yes | 43c | 80.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 47c | 74.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 31c | 68.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 60.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 57c | 60.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 63c | 41.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 56c | 36.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 29.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…4c52backed No | 61c | 24.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffb…751cbacked No | 43c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a01…5c08backed Yes | 60c | 20.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 53c | 19.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed No | 59c | 17.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948d…1a11backed No | 69c | 14.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on January 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 48°F or higher on January 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 42-43°F on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 44-45°F on January 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.