Mls · resolved market
Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13d52532653d18d96fac5225aa00a5d960ea7b6918442f32899bf726c45a0b18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta United FCof Orlando City SC, Atlanta United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Orlando City SC | 24c | 841.25$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.9 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Orlando City SC | 27c | 745.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Atlanta United FC | 74c | 713.44$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.81 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Orlando City SC | 33c | 510$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.3 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Atlanta United FC | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Atlanta United FC | 64c | 347.22$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Atlanta United FC | 76c | 213$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Atlanta United FC | 67c | 169.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Orlando City SC | 33c | 164.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta United FC | 74c | 152.23$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta United FC | 76c | 109$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Atlanta United FC | 69c | 99.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Orlando City SC | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)this page
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.