Mls · resolved market
Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81cf1259eb9d8fc66cb5138cde3f23c8e4a0c8d81a110eb8f90142b2315c4d4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 27c | 3,686$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 76c | 884.92$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.39 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 703$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.1 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 24c | 414.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.98 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 77c | 349.98$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 23c | 332.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 73c | 294.35$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.47 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 76c | 263.69$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Under | 76c | 261.89$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 22c | 232$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 25c | 228$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 217$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 74c | 215$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 24c | 208.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 80c | 175$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 78c | 174$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 74c | 168$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 23c | 166.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 73c | 156$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 77c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 24c | 46.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 75c | 38.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 75c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.