Mls · resolved market
Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c379b9809c7272226841243beb7eefd110babb26ed59a66af93b1e5520f0449
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 34c | 999.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 56c | 884.61$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.42 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 746.11$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.62 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 39c | 660.19$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.46 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 49c | 596.74$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.52 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 35c | 580$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 61c | 506.67$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.91 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 55c | 355.69$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.63 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 53c | 299.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.99 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 68c | 271.47$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.6 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 248.69$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 52c | 166.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 34c | 165$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.9 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 34c | 163.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.07 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 34c | 163.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.01 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 66c | 151.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 66c | 145.45$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 65c | 122.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 35c | 103.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 34c | 88.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 66c | 75.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 34c | 67.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 48c | 62.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…21dbbacked Under | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 30c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 68c | 29.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Under | 35c | 28.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 27.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…147abacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.