Mls · resolved market
Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67799647e36451d3f0d18e125d445949857587c4e0d67695320b2d975413e893
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc72d…fc21backed Under | 56c | 2,314$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 44c | 1,591$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 44c | 1,527$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.69 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,114$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.23 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 43c | 626.34$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.33 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Over | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 56c | 399.42$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.32 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 56c | 293$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.23 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 56c | 265.04$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.8 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 44c | 226.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 39c | 219$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 40c | 199.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…edc9backed Under | 75c | 193.44$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a88…4e57backed Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 141.51$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20b…3ae4backed Over | 44c | 108.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 43c | 69.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 44c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 44c | 57.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…0675backed Over | 45c | 44.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 55c | 44.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f8…3b6cbacked Over | 49c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 31.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…1654backed Over | 52c | 28.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 44c | 25.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 44c | 25.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 43c | 25.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 57c | 25.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 60c | 23.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…82bcbacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3b…583bbacked Under | 58c | 19.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.