Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14032e5e75aaa2cf87ab4b6363f13d658a73b8436073247b9bdafc67e32e74b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 865.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 2c | 656.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 17c | 214.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 14c | 212.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.65 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 24c | 203.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.99 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 12c | 202.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 8c | 200.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 160.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 40c | 146.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.02 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 136.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 8c | 126.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 40c | 126.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.09 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 23c | 122.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 23c | 118.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.76 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 113.81$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 112$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…3ee9backed Yes | 12c | 101.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.23 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 12c | 100.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 26c | 100.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 19c | 86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 15c | 67.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 28c | 67.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 17c | 64.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 60.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 18c | 58.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…3ddfbacked Yes | 40c | 57.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 57.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 55.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 49.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 22c | 49.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 32c | 47.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 46.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 35c | 41.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 46c | 36.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 60c | 36.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 57c | 32.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 47c | 30.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 70c | 28.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 60c | 25.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfafe…066fbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 22.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 57c | 21.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 75c | 18.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf147…791ebacked No | 74c | 15.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.