Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9d5b0be0020f4f8c6bd636ed1016e7804d18ee1e6b324e93a21a3245d17e3de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x937b…bfabbacked No | 78c | 999.67$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.79 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 392.05$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.06 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 62c | 215.43$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 47c | 190.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 183$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 49c | 164.16$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 52c | 149.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 146.35$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 47c | 145.87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 135$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3f95backed No | 76c | 131.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 9c | 117.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 53c | 117.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 112$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 106.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 20c | 101.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 92.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 55c | 91.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 52c | 86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed No | 46c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 73.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 34c | 61.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 40c | 59.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 49c | 59.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 51c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 48c | 57.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 51.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…b8aabacked No | 52c | 46.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 35c | 46.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 53c | 44.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 49c | 41.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 41.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 40c | 41.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 52c | 40.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 52c | 40.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 47c | 37.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 46c | 37.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…f2adbacked No | 57c | 35.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 60c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 59c | 32.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 32.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d6…9b41backed Yes | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 43c | 27.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 47c | 27.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 53c | 25.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4e…9321backed Yes | 47c | 22.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 57c | 21.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 21.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 55c | 19.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 59c | 17.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.