Token Launches · resolved market
Over $1M committed to the Sol Raffle public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x141e76e9b0f0345c46c02a8d596dfbcd1f8425080b41aada6133b0c9c67af526
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,722$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,250$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…61b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…8366backed Yes | 26c | 580$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 7c | 572.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d6…893dbacked No | 71c | 550$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +478%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…b608backed No | 58c | 440$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.7 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +340.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…01e0backed No | 76c | 244.49$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 33c | 243.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 39c | 179.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 16c | 126.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed Yes | 39c | 114.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 16c | 98.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bda…7258backed No | 70c | 44.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $1M committed to the Sol Raffle public sale?this page
- Over $2M committed to the Sol Raffle public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Sol Raffle public sale?No won
- Over $500K committed to the Sol Raffle public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the Sol Raffle public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.