Token Launches · resolved market
Over $500K committed to the Sol Raffle public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaf350be8e96fa378eaad76e9c9a957671da7415024f8e33fce4cd3b32a29159
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,869$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3b…63b7backed Yes | 62c | 2,017$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf398…7942backed No | 67c | 1,830$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d6…893dbacked No | 32c | 1,704$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +478%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…33e5backed No | 80c | 1,278$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e4…dc76backed Yes | 61c | 1,253$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.72 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc729…9004backed No | 45c | 1,130$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,125$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.56 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0048…ab1cbacked Yes | 79c | 751.68$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.03 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed Yes | 32c | 691.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.64 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…955dbacked Yes | 44c | 603.34$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 39c | 598.68$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.98 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa06d…6ca9backed No | 56c | 531.63$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 457.33$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.12 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcae9…c13bbacked Yes | 49c | 456$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.58 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ff…1775backed No | 52c | 427.7$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.69 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed Yes | 47c | 409.81$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.77 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed No | 60c | 405.53$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.95 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 43c | 309.52$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.9 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 27c | 272.72$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 47c | 263.92$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.85 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4068…f579backed No | 17c | 233.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +480.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…8366backed Yes | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…2a6ebacked No | 56c | 206.88$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +61%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0893…42e2backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed No | 78c | 152.71$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 146.14$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.49 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 130.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79f2…15e0backed Yes | 79c | 122$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed No | 79c | 117$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +7.0wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed No | 38c | 81.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +125.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2043…0b53backed No | 30c | 71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +237.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 21c | 63.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 20c | 57.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…adc4backed Yes | 50c | 40.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed No | 46c | 30.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa986…3dfdbacked Yes | 63c | 30.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…000fbacked Yes | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 50c | 28.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bda…7258backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…01e0backed No | 52c | 25.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $500K committed to the Sol Raffle public sale?this page
- Over $1M committed to the Sol Raffle public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the Sol Raffle public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Sol Raffle public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the Sol Raffle public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.