CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x142079b5154f1ae4776d2ddbfa1cff6049442c03519c650c37bcea71ce282c54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof Aurora Gaming, paiN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,072 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa436…3c2fbacked Aurora Gaming | 22c | 313$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +206.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…8795backed paiN | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Aurora Gaming | 35c | 284.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.39 | 613 | 38.2%234 W · 379 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5978…aec4backed Aurora Gaming | 35c | 257.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.14 | 229 | 38%87 W · 142 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked paiN | 65c | 241.69$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.29 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Aurora Gaming | 35c | 207.46$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.55 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked paiN | 69c | 200$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.39 | 535 | 45%241 W · 294 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…eedcbacked paiN | 65c | 170$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 406 | 55.7%226 W · 180 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c6…2808backed paiN | 78c | 167$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3932…d47ebacked paiN | 78c | 146$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…e271backed Aurora Gaming | 31c | 140.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.91 | 379 | 46.4%176 W · 203 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…43dcbacked paiN | 68c | 73.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 380 | 51.3%195 W · 185 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Aurora Gaming | 32c | 63.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…3bc1backed Aurora Gaming | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed paiN | 52c | 51.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed paiN | 27c | 50.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: paiN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2Aurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: paiN vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: paiN vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.