Olympics · resolved market
Will Johannes Klaebo (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's Skiathlon at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x142c6788b08a8e38bfd3edb5f1f9a2dcbc6abe985892b2e82fa6c9f8b766c7de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c42…6e3bbacked No | 33c | 981.78$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d8…969ebacked No | 41c | 601.11$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed No | 25c | 272.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…9e4fbacked Yes | 78c | 261.16$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0c…e795backed Yes | 76c | 253.03$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 60c | 246.37$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.93 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…a0fbbacked No | 24c | 222.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb613…89acbacked Yes | 76c | 210.25$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 12c | 168.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 70c | 158$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 75c | 131$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Yes | 67c | 125$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 112.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 45c | 101.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…b0c1backed No | 20c | 95.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2174…fad8backed Yes | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be1…5a54backed Yes | 76c | 58.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edf…98a5backed Yes | 77c | 52.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f49…d8edbacked Yes | 77c | 50.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed Yes | 75c | 33.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac3…3c8bbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…aac7backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c86…e223backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5c…7a2dbacked Yes | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…c33cbacked Yes | 65c | 15.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Johannes Klaebo (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's Skiathlon at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Harald Oestberg Amundsen (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's Skiathlon at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Iivo Niskanen (FIN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's Skiathlon at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Mathis Desloges (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's Skiathlon at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.