Asian League · resolved market
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x142e3ef4e4f534fc441176d3234ff47d343cf90704b69aeebf42068fa568d29b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 35c | 14,290$5,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,288.42 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +17.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 8,326$5,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,289.76 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 65c | 2,138$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.3 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 37c | 1,720$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.01 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 16c | 827.73$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 56c | 827.26$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.03 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 65c | 745.13$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.33 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 65c | 745.13$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.33 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 49c | 477.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.22 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fb…28dabacked Under | 52c | 344.26$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.71 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 39c | 312.79$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.35 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 65c | 283.59$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.33 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 65c | 226.24$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.06 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Under | 65c | 182.16$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 65c | 175.17$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.86 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 29c | 145.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 34c | 142.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…d947backed Under | 66c | 132.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 46c | 128.66$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.47 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…3dadbacked Under | 58c | 99.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 47c | 84.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 51c | 83.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked Under | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Over | 50c | 76.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 23c | 73.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 51c | 73.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 50c | 73.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 37c | 70.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 51c | 68.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 19c | 60.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 51c | 58.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 41c | 54.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 65c | 52.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9368…8b01backed Over | 34c | 46.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 52c | 38.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 79c | 36.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 73cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 57c | 35.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63fc…4a6cbacked Over | 51c | 29.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…7dffbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf70…4b1cbacked Over | 65c | 18.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.