Asian League · resolved market
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x954fdfb09b8b9c4f1649618ab65d87b22ac9605ba9095439f7eac9e79568bc80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 12c | 728.35$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 468.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 37c | 352.45$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.68 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 74c | 303$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 40c | 286$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4244…03a6backed Over | 43c | 234.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 16c | 154.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 70c | 111.63$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 37c | 108.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 107.82$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 40c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 70c | 39.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 36c | 38.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 62c | 36.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 64c | 30.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 64c | 30.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 64c | 25.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 64c | 20.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 64c | 20.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.