Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1433dcc89089dd82d87f5e444e2c5d637308ac95afaa35214922e7aca005e83e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb453…bed9backed No | 37c | 355.42$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 346.51$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.36 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 59c | 328.23$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.79 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 281$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 199.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.25 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 190.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.77 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 136.07$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 136.03$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 15c | 123.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 115.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 114.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 44c | 113.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 61c | 97.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 89.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 70c | 88.21$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 67c | 87.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 74.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 72.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 34c | 72.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 15c | 71.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 65.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 66c | 60.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 59.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 54.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 52.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 51.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 53c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 47.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 47c | 37.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 36.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 52c | 35.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 46c | 32.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 66c | 30.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 60c | 27.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 71c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 63c | 25.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 60c | 22.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 18.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 68c | 17.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 65c | 17.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.