Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x355a2ce8b397abf77e83cefd9fdf6e9033a814af436542fbe03dec81200990b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked Yes | 3c | 8,739$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.54 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…d113backed No | 55c | 451.14$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.39 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 20c | 331.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 324.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.79 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 323.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed Yes | 72c | 318.87$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.97 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 72c | 279.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 36c | 261.81$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 229.31$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 197.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 28c | 157.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.36 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 36c | 139.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.49 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 136.25$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 12c | 135.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.73 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 11c | 130.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 50c | 120.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 44c | 116.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7a…24f9backed Yes | 76c | 105.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 49c | 100.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed No | 19c | 95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 66c | 84.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 46c | 79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 17c | 78.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 50c | 69.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 49c | 69.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 23c | 67.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 50c | 60.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked No | 57c | 57.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 72c | 57.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 65c | 57.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 34c | 53.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 40.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 58c | 39.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c97…013bbacked Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed No | 52c | 35.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 31.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 62c | 31.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…1663backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 70c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…016bbacked No | 57c | 26.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 51c | 20.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 71c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.