Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1436ea4db495edfacdf68549a51db77d145c32ec3d49370407f7e82e4905bb1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 79c | 1,067$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.42 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 20c | 631.02$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.82 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 51c | 353.07$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.65 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 20c | 234.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.98 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 20c | 222$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.57 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked No | 26c | 175.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 149.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 56c | 120.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 55c | 82.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 54.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0b…7b92backed Yes | 48c | 52.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 47.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed No | 62c | 46.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed Yes | 34c | 41.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 48c | 35.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86f1…1f53backed No | 68c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 70c | 21.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 56c | 18.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 24?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C on April 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.