Ukraine · resolved market
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1448b6fb6823233b69a6f1226bddb952542c794059f94b720b30ae36fe702c28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8523…8a19backed No | 8c | 5,390$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 6c | 3,725$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.38 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…c3cabacked No | 5c | 2,076$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +460.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x797a…7924backed No | 7c | 2,016$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…c608backed No | 7c | 1,513$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 1,281$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…d51ebacked No | 7c | 1,180$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 7c | 1,124$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…cf3dbacked Yes | 65c | 1,000$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25c…3314backed No | 35c | 1,000$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 937.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 5c | 844.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 4c | 769.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5776…b9c4backed No | 7c | 750$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…4d91backed No | 3c | 744.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 730.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 5c | 656.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…e61dbacked No | 2c | 602.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 5c | 590.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 9c | 556.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…ac39backed No | 4c | 518.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked No | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3d…0679backed No | 3c | 424.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…26d1backed No | 4c | 421.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad55…6e5cbacked No | 5c | 392$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27b…95f3backed Yes | 64c | 371.05$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 3c | 363.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbf…0367backed Yes | 64c | 362$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 4c | 360$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa126…7c7fbacked No | 8c | 344.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb05…5b10backed Yes | 65c | 342$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1d…7025backed Yes | 64c | 334$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…edd5backed Yes | 64c | 325$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 6c | 324.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e97…d710backed Yes | 64c | 320$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…1833backed No | 4c | 280.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f83…55e8backed No | 4c | 275$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d9…4fc3backed Yes | 77c | 195.03$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18df…49c5backed No | 6c | 189.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…b6f1backed Yes | 60c | 167.47$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 19c | 160.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 9c | 155.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5a…c111backed No | 17c | 145.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 39c | 131.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 26c | 124.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…0fa5backed No | 18c | 115.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…78e4backed Yes | 64c | 109.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 12c | 103.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 79c | 101.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…e1b6backed Yes | 67c | 89.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…8c30backed No | 20c | 84.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd88…b752backed No | 16c | 64.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4528…450fbacked Yes | 80c | 56.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 62c | 54.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 31c | 49.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…e007backed Yes | 79c | 44.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 37c | 43.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…4dccbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…0d5bbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb624…f8d1backed Yes | 70c | 15.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd022…9409backed Yes | 64c | 15.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the April Meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.