Ukraine · resolved market
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8bf450eca48e2649bc0945b71e449f2c80cd893d56208f31fed7a8687afadad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23c1…ac39backed Yes | 4c | 7,164$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…8a19backed Yes | 5c | 3,853$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…0837backed Yes | 5c | 2,063$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…17e0backed Yes | 5c | 1,731$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…991bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,481$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…d3fbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,396$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…9a3bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,037$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab8…1b19backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 863.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeffb…34b8backed Yes | 5c | 782.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…e6fbbacked Yes | 4c | 736.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 5c | 733.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…df18backed Yes | 7c | 730.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…2783backed Yes | 14c | 714.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 5c | 688.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d01…76a8backed Yes | 13c | 676.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x009a…2756backed Yes | 13c | 662.72$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 7c | 618.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 6c | 615$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4869…509bbacked Yes | 3c | 605.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 4c | 579.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 7c | 571$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 533.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…8939backed Yes | 4c | 494.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 3c | 471.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…9e7cbacked Yes | 7c | 455.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 7c | 452.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 450.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 3c | 450$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5a…c111backed Yes | 18c | 448.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…9403backed Yes | 5c | 429.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…cbd5backed Yes | 5c | 401.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x058c…cbc2backed Yes | 5c | 395.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…d51ebacked Yes | 14c | 350.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3e…4eedbacked Yes | 25c | 294.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 5c | 263.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 257.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334b…d440backed Yes | 6c | 256.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf43f…ae53backed Yes | 20c | 250.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 248.98$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…b28bbacked Yes | 9c | 237.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +338.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…c4abbacked Yes | 6c | 186.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 8c | 186$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 177.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…0fa5backed Yes | 17c | 144.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31f8…5086backed Yes | 13c | 141.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…755cbacked Yes | 14c | 138.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d6…d7ffbacked Yes | 19c | 113.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…1cb4backed Yes | 20c | 77.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 70.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 33c | 60.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…e845backed Yes | 20c | 50.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?Yes won
- Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the April Meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.