Premier League · resolved market
Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-04-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x147cf4273aeec290b28621d5fc831754b874589c19d8a3ecb34e0d79951d8420
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cd1…34efbacked Yes | 4c | 3,342$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,203$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 3c | 1,936$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 10c | 1,871$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.44 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 677.23$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.35 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 21c | 619.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 533 | 44.8%239 W · 294 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Yes | 21c | 606.27$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.32 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 24c | 526.95$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.47 | 236 | 32.2%76 W · 160 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…656dbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 79c | 362.21$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.06 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…0416backed Yes | 27c | 353.62$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 217.36$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Yes | 22c | 212.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked No | 79c | 207.35$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 179 | 59.8%107 W · 72 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked No | 79c | 207.35$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 181 | 56.4%102 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked No | 79c | 182.67$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 76c | 177.98$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 72c | 152.38$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 489 | 50.1%245 W · 244 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 21c | 147$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 277 | 52.3%145 W · 132 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…ba43backed No | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 109 | 71.6%78 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 77c | 108.67$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 395 | 55.9%221 W · 174 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked No | 78c | 107.35$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 78c | 107.35$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 275 | 52.7%145 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed No | 78c | 107.35$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Yes | 24c | 99.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf11a…d3e3backed No | 79c | 98.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Yes | 22c | 95.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 216 | 48.6%105 W · 111 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 25c | 79.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 24c | 67.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 23c | 60.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 202 | 59.9%121 W · 81 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 75c | 19.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 78c | 14.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed No | 77c | 13.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-04-21?this page
- Will Millwall FC win on 2026-04-21?Yes won
- Will Stoke City FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.