TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
St. Louis Cardinalsof Arizona Diamondbacks, St. Louis Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,112
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,092

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,112 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks20c440.72$86 inLost-$86.2912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals79c403.01$317 inWon+$86.268,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Arizona Diamondbacks25c76.97$19 inLost-$19.091,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks30c60.18$18 inLost-$18.1710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks40c47.01$19 inLost-$18.965,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3c2…5509backed St. Louis Cardinals59c41.75$25 inWon+$17.1222154.3%120 W · 101 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed St. Louis Cardinals60c41.05$25 inWon+$16.4226752.8%141 W · 126 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f12…effbbacked St. Louis Cardinals60c41.05$25 inWon+$16.427343.8%32 W · 41 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3186…2a53backed St. Louis Cardinals61c40.47$25 inWon+$15.849455.3%52 W · 42 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed St. Louis Cardinals72c25$18 inWon+$71,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals61c22.28$14 inWon+$8.728,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked St. Louis Cardinals72c21.52$15 inWon+$6.0274657.8%431 W · 315 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.