MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c88e29fc2671adcda1189e31326793b048b581a2af09cdc7df7eb28204e4722
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Arizona Diamondbacks, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 13,389$4,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,014.77 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 9,073$6,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,725.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 2,803$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.68 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 1,069$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.71 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 918.45$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.83 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 827.31$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.85 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 705.34$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.23 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.67 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 659.85$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.04 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 630$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.8 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 559.95$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.71 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 549.93$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 497.56$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 272.45$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.69 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 181.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 147.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.48 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…f0e0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 31c | 131.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed St. Louis Cardinals | 17c | 126.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.89 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 121.84$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 111.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 106.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 81.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 54.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 71c | 53.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 40.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 35.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 25.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed St. Louis Cardinals | 71c | 23.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 17.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis CardinalsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.