MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a8723d8c78ea048d2b25e9444b7ac7933b9037f780ed19121c999a4e14cfa24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f0…2768backed Under | 52c | 13,582$7,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,563.75 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 7,136$3,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,459 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 49c | 1,880$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.96 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 49c | 1,758$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.29 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…5ee4backed Over | 48c | 1,497$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.66 | 285 | 53.3%152 W · 133 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 49c | 1,260$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 51c | 900$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 780$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 603.83$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.8 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 50c | 309.66$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.83 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 48c | 298$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.03 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 43c | 247.69$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.66 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 49c | 239.54$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.37 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b22…9431backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 52c | 182.69$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 48c | 170$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 48c | 132.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 48c | 124.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 111$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 88.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 79.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 65.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Over | 49c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 41c | 57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 32c | 44.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Over | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…7b57backed Over | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x158d…1aeabacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 69c | 16.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis CardinalsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.