Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 94°F or higher on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1492eb279319faff99353092b8453da6ac214b8a331947afb3a794d96ce0a721
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 78c | 730.6$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.9 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 79c | 587.28$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.13 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 20c | 340.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 296$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b70…22ebbacked Yes | 78c | 265.65$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 65c | 191.78$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 15c | 178.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed No | 17c | 171.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 168.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 157.31$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 20c | 149.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 28c | 127$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 31c | 119.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe2…f2b0backed No | 18c | 113.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 80c | 100.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 67c | 95.79$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 53c | 95.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…2d2bbacked No | 18c | 90.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 53c | 89.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 75c | 87.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 86.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…4c2bbacked No | 28c | 86.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 80c | 79.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 21c | 79.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 15c | 78.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 65.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed No | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 17c | 62.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 67c | 58.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 26c | 58.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 22c | 56.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 51.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 34c | 51.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…d242backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 71c | 43.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 77c | 38.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 70c | 35.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…e7f5backed Yes | 44c | 33.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 44c | 31.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb1…bd66backed Yes | 76c | 31.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 80c | 28.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes | 39c | 27.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 48c | 25.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 75c | 25.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked Yes | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 21.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 78c | 20.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…9f14backed Yes | 63c | 19.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…c72abacked Yes | 69c | 18.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked No | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e3…6befbacked Yes | 79c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 94°F or higher on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.