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NBA · resolved market

Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 17.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,110
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,110 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd529…f0d4backed No67c921.79$619 inLost-$618.791,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No66c732$481 inLost-$481.434,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd015…da8dbacked Yes33c675.76$223 inWon+$452.76616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51bc…f2fabacked Yes31c293.87$90 inWon+$203.872321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-40%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Yes31c290.29$89 inWon+$201.5515753.5%84 W · 73 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0e…8d7dbacked Yes30c194.68$59 inWon+$135.421315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-54.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9616…73f3backed Yes36c155.79$56 inWon+$99.79425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No64c140.23$90 inLost-$89.7590863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No68c111.09$75 inLost-$75.0583158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x848f…ffd8backed No61c110$67 inLost-$67.12045%9 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed Yes39c100$39 inWon+$61.244746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes39c85$33 inWon+$51.8510450%52 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74c5…6cb7backed Yes44c68.18$30 inWon+$38.185541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes37c62.16$23 inWon+$39.162020%4 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-49.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf638…aa50backed Yes28c53.63$15 inWon+$38.481822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-41%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No71c39.52$28 inLost-$27.8632866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.