Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14e63bc820ea96173803e3369bc20f49402dc5c3b2760c33b154a8a281c8c77d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 4,222$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 3c | 1,799$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Yes | 3c | 1,589$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +256.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 12c | 864.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 8c | 692.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 10c | 569.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 11c | 527.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 464.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 10c | 438.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 10c | 414.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 389.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 12c | 334$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 12c | 299.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba95…ec86backed Yes | 12c | 243.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 239.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 5c | 235$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 8c | 199.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c74…01c3backed Yes | 13c | 173$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 7c | 171$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 8c | 168.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 7c | 167.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 10c | 151.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 7c | 142.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…82e4backed Yes | 14c | 117.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 11c | 100.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 11c | 93.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…2321backed Yes | 12c | 92.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.