Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14f08d9989f694da41e595774d39def6ca2fa88526164380f6008f4918f149fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 10c | 336.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 15c | 238.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 22c | 231.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 66c | 212$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 203.28$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.63 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 80c | 198.16$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 166.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 57c | 158.66$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.42 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 13c | 150.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 20c | 149.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 13c | 138.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 46c | 134.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 78c | 131.71$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 120.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 70c | 109.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 71c | 104.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 46c | 98.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 93.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…5ffcbacked Yes | 40c | 90.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 27c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 35c | 73.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 73c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 32c | 60.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 75c | 60.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 59.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 59.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 58c | 52.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 42c | 51.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 50.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 49.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 35c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 69c | 46.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 80c | 43.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 52c | 41.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 72c | 41.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 31c | 41.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f30…1f71backed Yes | 76c | 40.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 35c | 35.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 36c | 34.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 32.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 30.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 30.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 48c | 30.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 35c | 30.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…e048backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 42c | 29.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 27.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 71c | 26.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 72c | 26.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 61c | 24.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 23.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c40…8ef9backed No | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 20.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes | 78c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6146…9848backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 62c | 19.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc600…a575backed Yes | 74c | 18.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed No | 70c | 17.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 73c | 17.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 63c | 15.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28fe…1640backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +7.3wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.