MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14fdc9ef046399093d6b00cc374af55d4a9eb2980692992a215159b4e076dec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 749.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 665.2$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.73 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 371.12$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.47 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 366.38$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 147.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 132.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 127.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 65c | 127$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…46e6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…1365backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 72c | 92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 151 | 59.6%90 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 84.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 79.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 78.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 74.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 73.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 67.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 53.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 52.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 46.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 41.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 226 | 53.1%120 W · 106 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 77c | 36.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 33.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 31.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 28.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 20.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-5.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-7.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.