Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x150ff5c3519c1de2315be142e8f8aedf722c79a2cb0354c9b78fa7958fa56f41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fokinaof Fokina, Cerundolo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Fokina | 66c | 4,549$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.58 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Cerundolo | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Cerundolo | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Cerundolo | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Fokina | 68c | 442.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.09 | 321 | 47%151 W · 170 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cerundolo | 32c | 380.14$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.64 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cerundolo | 33c | 265$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Cerundolo | 30c | 185.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Fokina | 70c | 185.8$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Cerundolo | 31c | 181.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Fokina | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 643 | 50.2%323 W · 320 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Cerundolo | 39c | 145$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Cerundolo | 33c | 118$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Cerundolo | 32c | 112$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Fokina | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 346 | 50.6%175 W · 171 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Fokina | 70c | 89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Fokina | 70c | 82.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Cerundolo | 33c | 80.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Cerundolo | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Fokina | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Fokina | 67c | 74.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Cerundolo | 30c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd5…805abacked Fokina | 65c | 46.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…53c3backed Fokina | 66c | 37.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Fokina | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Cerundolo | 36c | 31.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Cerundolo | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)this page
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Fokina vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Fokina vs. Cerundolo: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Fokina vs CerundoloFokina won
- Set 3 Winner: Fokina vs CerundoloFokina won
- Set Handicap: Fokina (-2.5) vs Cerundolo (+2.5)Fokina won
- Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel CerundoloAlejandro Davidovich Fokina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.