Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1529dca47668e3bf71191bf2b0b2e606cb93022e1b988ccf59a7375643728603
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Under | 78c | 3,835$2,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,990.23 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 1,517$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.44 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 23c | 1,249$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.83 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 55c | 798.43$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.29 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 77c | 776$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.88 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 528.73$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.11 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…92ddbacked Over | 55c | 362.56$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 22c | 191.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.98 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 42c | 182.64$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.47 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Over | 57c | 136.16$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 58c | 108.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 77c | 91.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 57c | 89.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 24c | 84.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Over | 22c | 78.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 24c | 44.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 117 | 53.8%63 W · 54 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 75c | 26.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 56c | 21.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +10.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Metz vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Metz vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)FC Metz won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-2.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.