Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bdd519fbe1f7b023a110d494470f72a3bceae3b340955fd78cb656b4996404d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,990 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 3,292$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.26 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 31c | 1,115$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.83 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 31c | 725.72$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.66 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 49c | 615$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.65 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Over | 52c | 305.61$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.69 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 10c | 284.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f63…a68cbacked Over | 14c | 261.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Under | 34c | 238.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 19c | 231.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Under | 55c | 172.01$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…8293backed Under | 78c | 160.31$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 64c | 151.6$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 21c | 148.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1c…0e2cbacked Under | 53c | 143.19$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 19c | 137.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 162 | 24.1%39 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 53c | 109.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 38c | 98.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde95…b97fbacked Under | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 27c | 54.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 76c | 51.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 80c | 15.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Metz vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Metz vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)FC Metz won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-2.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.