Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x152a2810cb144f564293253c2108400b9ef2568332e2c3b95c465aa2489d8969
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 1c | 3,159$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 4c | 2,604$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f32…073abacked Yes | 6c | 2,392$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 2c | 2,333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,358$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 2c | 1,184$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,153$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 9c | 841.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 768.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 5c | 650.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 2c | 603.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 595.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 6c | 592.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 5c | 410.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…6cd3backed Yes | 12c | 308.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 4c | 279.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 274.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed Yes | 5c | 272.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 8c | 260.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 245.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f5…d1d7backed Yes | 7c | 244.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 229.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 9c | 209.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…27a9backed Yes | 7c | 192.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 9c | 189.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 164.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 10c | 161.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d0…6d36backed Yes | 12c | 153.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…5022backed Yes | 11c | 146.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 11c | 92.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.