NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x153bd89904d39908d177374d3b57fb00d982b336e25e70313e17aa087257e0c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Sharks | 48c | 9,000$4,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,319.91 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning | 52c | 4,846$2,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,313.64 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…cca5backed Lightning | 53c | 4,283$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,013.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cb…4d21backed Sharks | 47c | 4,283$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,012.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Sharks | 47c | 3,432$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lightning | 53c | 2,772$1,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.79 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Lightning | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Lightning | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Lightning | 52c | 951.92$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.92 | 200 | 47.5%95 W · 105 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Sharks | 48c | 597.91$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lightning | 51c | 422.05$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.27 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lightning | 52c | 351.22$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.68 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 53c | 339.11$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.29 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sharks | 58c | 275$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.7 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Lightning | 53c | 264.34$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.34 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Lightning | 42c | 249.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec2…59e6backed Lightning | 52c | 194.17$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Lightning | 52c | 172.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Lightning | 52c | 116.6$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8c…2157backed Lightning | 52c | 108.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Sharks | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Lightning | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Sharks | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Lightning | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 177 | 55.9%99 W · 78 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Lightning | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sharks | 47c | 94.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sharks | 49c | 94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Sharks | 47c | 84.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Sharks | 49c | 79.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…1f46backed Lightning | 53c | 76.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Lightning | 43c | 74.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Lightning | 53c | 50.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sharks | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Sharks | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Sharks | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Sharks | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…581bbacked Lightning | 52c | 38.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Lightning | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Sharks | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lightning | 56c | 29.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Lightning | 52c | 27.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Lightning | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Sharks | 57c | 21.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Sharks | 58c | 20.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Sharks vs. LightningLightning won
- Sharks vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-2.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.