NHL · resolved market
Sharks vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fc4ac735dd477244afaa6089ae5b866a2314684810718700d1331c4d725d567
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 4,516$2,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,257.8 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 53c | 1,900$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.26 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 50c | 1,487$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 437 | 43%188 W · 249 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 1,422$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.4 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 1,099$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.5 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 1,091$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.82 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea1…7de3backed Under | 51c | 1,028$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 53c | 569.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.18 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 49c | 532$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.68 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 21c | 401.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdead…a717backed Over | 49c | 379.9$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa8…373fbacked Over | 49c | 376.76$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 51c | 333.33$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.33 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 233.8$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.09 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Under | 51c | 224$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.76 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 49c | 218$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2013…c63fbacked Over | 49c | 212.8$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6e…722dbacked Over | 49c | 210.7$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b9…806fbacked Over | 49c | 210.49$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4582…00d0backed Under | 51c | 202.25$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…6c5fbacked Under | 51c | 200.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b1…d8eebacked Under | 51c | 199.75$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 169$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…c85cbacked Over | 49c | 157.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 152.44$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 77c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 103 | 67%69 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Over | 50c | 138.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…68a2backed Under | 58c | 135$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Over | 36c | 110.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7c…c084backed Under | 51c | 109.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b4…9894backed Over | 49c | 105.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 49c | 91.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 25c | 87.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…3bbbbacked Over | 49c | 85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 82.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Under | 36c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Under | 51c | 79.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 49c | 61.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 237 | 54%128 W · 109 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Over | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 48c | 40.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ae…6e2bbacked Under | 62c | 40.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02a…2573backed Over | 49c | 40.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Under | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x886b…73d1backed Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…3cdebacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sharks vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Sharks vs. LightningLightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-2.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.