Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Musetti (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x153d66f6006a7ae62b9fd6d144dc828c113033c21990f0b79d6d43356448eb47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jodarof Jodar, Musetti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb94c…ae33backed Musetti | 50c | 1,844$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.75 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafee…881ebacked Jodar | 35c | 1,470$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.78 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…78f8backed Musetti | 67c | 1,332$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.2 | 436 | 47.2%206 W · 230 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Jodar | 35c | 1,107$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.94 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Musetti | 65c | 1,053$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.3 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…9c8fbacked Jodar | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 117 | 60.7%71 W · 46 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Jodar | 33c | 999.9$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.93 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Jodar | 35c | 583.95$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.57 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Musetti | 65c | 556.37$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.64 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Musetti | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 580 | 21.9%127 W · 453 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7544…e3aebacked Musetti | 67c | 468.73$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.05 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Musetti | 67c | 447$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.49 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Jodar | 48c | 380.94$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.72 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Jodar | 55c | 264.18$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.23 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedde…5db2backed Musetti | 38c | 256.89$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…3250backed Musetti | 67c | 149.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed Jodar | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…3373backed Jodar | 50c | 97.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Jodar | 33c | 75.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Musetti | 67c | 74.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Jodar | 33c | 73.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Jodar | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Jodar | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Musetti | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Jodar | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Musetti | 67c | 20.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…c665backed Musetti | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…c113backed Musetti | 67c | 16.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Musetti (+1.5)this page
- Jodar vs. Musetti: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Jodar vs. Musetti: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo MusettiRafael Jodar won
- Rafael Jodar vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs MusettiJodar won
- Set 2 Winner: Jodar vs MusettiJodar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.