MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15532393a7d0b5af3c48ff109b614066604c29eea0daaa0816a77d6466169439
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 2,219$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.71 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 1,924$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.81 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9e…3cb9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 61c | 1,550$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 1,229$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.22 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 946.48$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.8 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 858.28$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.65 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 845.09$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.65 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 521.77$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.71 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 476.85$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.2 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 66c | 428$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.52 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 319.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.33 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 66c | 235$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 211.31$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 158.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 108.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 74.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 70.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 57.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 25.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ac…e602backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 24.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.