Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15700193143ad4332053b60c392ff381c4940a97372b0629761cb25d9a41835d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof BALU, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 2,282$1,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.81 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked BALU | 25c | 1,951$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.39 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed BALU | 31c | 783.77$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.28 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Ilbirs eSports | 72c | 458.88$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.32 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed BALU | 15c | 405.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked BALU | 28c | 362.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.38 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed BALU | 9c | 271$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked BALU | 11c | 249.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked BALU | 17c | 218.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed BALU | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc564…e89dbacked BALU | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…e53bbacked BALU | 15c | 162.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked BALU | 25c | 154.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfed…9d03backed Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 144.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…8e54backed Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 105.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee22…7054backed BALU | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed BALU | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 84.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked BALU | 25c | 79.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Ilbirs eSports | 73c | 72.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed BALU | 16c | 72.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 63.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 63.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Ilbirs eSports | 63c | 62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked BALU | 22c | 58.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…084cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 58.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Ilbirs eSports | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 26.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…ca7dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Ilbirs eSports | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…c264backed Ilbirs eSports | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 48 | 77.1%37 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Ilbirs eSports | 72c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…6a2bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 176 | 60.2%106 W · 70 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group BIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Game Handicap: ILL (-1.5) vs BALU (+1.5)Ilbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.