Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaf8d69ad2f0677b6f987e7da1c94022f73073120e9ed28969fcf5153475116f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof BALU, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3de…6fe8backed Ilbirs eSports | 70c | 3,030$2,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.94 | 100 | 75%75 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked BALU | 41c | 2,824$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Ilbirs eSports | 63c | 2,455$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.53 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Ilbirs eSports | 71c | 1,950$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 1,630$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.72 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed BALU | 26c | 1,570$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.33 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked BALU | 29c | 1,253$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.7 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BALU | 30c | 1,212$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.67 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed BALU | 17c | 1,076$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked BALU | 32c | 966.54$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.75 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 928.79$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.93 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed BALU | 24c | 831$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.88 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfed…9d03backed BALU | 28c | 646.47$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…12c2backed BALU | 19c | 639.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked BALU | 30c | 540$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 502.9$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.82 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…f081backed BALU | 36c | 485$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.74 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked BALU | 12c | 477.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed BALU | 16c | 438.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Ilbirs eSports | 62c | 323.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…5504backed BALU | 16c | 309.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked BALU | 35c | 270.26$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.77 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed BALU | 30c | 262.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed BALU | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked BALU | 18c | 208.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc564…e89dbacked BALU | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 163.33$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked BALU | 30c | 161.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…d731backed Ilbirs eSports | 67c | 158$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 155.19$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed BALU | 24c | 130.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked BALU | 14c | 126.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked BALU | 24c | 123.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed BALU | 31c | 106$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 105$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked BALU | 36c | 105$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…084cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 71c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…2b19backed Ilbirs eSports | 71c | 103.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +11.3wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked BALU | 25c | 99.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 95.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 95.39$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed BALU | 37c | 90.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 83.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked BALU | 27c | 82.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 63c | 75.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed BALU | 26c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab1…638bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 57.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Ilbirs eSports | 64c | 52.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked BALU | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…de16backed Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 45.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…5d9fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 73c | 44.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa781…8745backed Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked BALU | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 473 | 58.6%277 W · 196 L | +25.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 77c | 34.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…ca7dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 32.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed Ilbirs eSports | 72c | 27.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Ilbirs eSports | 64c | 26.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Ilbirs eSports | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d5…4bd3backed Ilbirs eSports | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 25 | 96%24 W · 1 L | +5.6wins | +0.23per pick | 73cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 14.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group BIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Game Handicap: ILL (-1.5) vs BALU (+1.5)Ilbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.