Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: ILL (-1.5) vs BALU (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x369ce014df940060bfad40f9aa469930d2c2afa5d782b07d782fc0b9c55baec3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, BALU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 605.75$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.5 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…c7b2backed Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 577.09$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.48 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed BALU | 47c | 400$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed BALU | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked BALU | 45c | 192.08$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e2…f6fbbacked BALU | 46c | 104.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked BALU | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked BALU | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed BALU | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Ilbirs eSports | 55c | 74.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked BALU | 34c | 63.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee22…7054backed BALU | 48c | 57.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ilbirs eSports | 51c | 50.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…084cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 34.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed BALU | 58c | 21.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed BALU | 57c | 19.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: ILL (-1.5) vs BALU (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group BIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.