Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9525b59aed0f898ad33164b0b5504e988be51b8a76943cf822a987d82a2606c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof BALU, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6373…a0b7backed BALU | 20c | 5,561$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 148 | 25%37 W · 111 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x257e…ca61backed BALU | 18c | 3,710$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.09 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked BALU | 24c | 3,586$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.76 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 3,415$2,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.26 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 1,270$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.58 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 659.99$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.62 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 657.87$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.04 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…13dabacked BALU | 25c | 643.55$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.01 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 632$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.05 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed BALU | 20c | 542$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed BALU | 35c | 511.03$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.1 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ilbirs eSports | 77c | 500$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.37 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 397.5$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.78 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 391.42$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.49 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…1a89backed Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 362.31$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.06 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Ilbirs eSports | 64c | 353.57$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.29 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…8a03backed Ilbirs eSports | 73c | 324.76$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 308$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 77c | 289.14$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…29e0backed BALU | 30c | 285.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed BALU | 22c | 261.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…e53bbacked BALU | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ee…7b23backed BALU | 9c | 248$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Ilbirs eSports | 73c | 202.32$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 179.35$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 174.03$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…c94abacked BALU | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee22…7054backed BALU | 24c | 151.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed BALU | 20c | 135.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked BALU | 24c | 125.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…376fbacked BALU | 25c | 119.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 115.52$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed BALU | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked BALU | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed BALU | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 378 | 32.5%123 W · 255 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 92.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed BALU | 32c | 92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Ilbirs eSports | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 441 | 49.4%218 W · 223 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…fd49backed Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 71.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 148 | 68.9%102 W · 46 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x225e…ac2dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 71.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…ae1dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 59.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ilbirs eSports | 77c | 57.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed BALU | 32c | 56.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 50.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…854bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked BALU | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 41.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 67c | 32.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 31.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f6…d2f2backed Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 25.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Ilbirs eSports | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…8986backed Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Ilbirs eSports | 77c | 20.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8b…0644backed Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 19.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b86…5552backed Ilbirs eSports | 73c | 17.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…d93fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 16.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Game Handicap: ILL (-1.5) vs BALU (+1.5)Ilbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.