MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x158854b3361fcf605d78958b01f5650135117ae9f42132f86fa3bea2f02df633
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f70…ce77backed Under | 5c | 3,532$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.64 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 61c | 3,006$1,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.96 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…fa1abacked Under | 7c | 2,350$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 1,656$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.05 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…37acbacked Under | 6c | 1,400$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Over | 43c | 1,020$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.4 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 8c | 700$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 60c | 205$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 53c | 165.08$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 17c | 121$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 41c | 119$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Under | 40c | 100.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Under | 40c | 96.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 60c | 91.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Under | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 38c | 47.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Over | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 67c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 33c | 35.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 2.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.