MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3bf92ce65e5ca654115911f3a798ad3060d36ae3e9e602a7a9f8cd6ee219e86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 51c | 4,061$2,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070.89 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…7a19backed Over | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 51c | 3,076$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.94 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 2,645$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.99 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 50c | 2,244$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.4 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 52c | 1,917$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.56 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 49c | 1,893$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.29 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 50c | 1,460$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Over | 33c | 760.3$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.5 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 50c | 748.14$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.35 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 48c | 500$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.69 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 49c | 400.26$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.73 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 46c | 326.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.08 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Over | 50c | 197.24$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 51c | 185.04$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.77 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 27c | 146$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 142.38$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 138.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 51c | 93.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 65c | 81.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 49c | 63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 51c | 58.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 76c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Under | 52c | 44.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 49c | 44.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 20.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Under | 50c | 20.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 2.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.